Premier League substitutions: 1. What and When?

Tactics have been transmitted to the players, set pieces have been prepared (or more likely not..) and opponents have been thoroughly studied. Then it’s game time and the manager sees his influence slip out of his hands. There seems to be only so much he can do during the 90 minutes. Walking impatiently along the sideline, shouting at the fourth official and handing notes to throw-in takers is probably not going to do it, but one of the obvious things he can do to try to impact an on-going game is to bring on substitute players. Little has been written on this matter, so here is my (first) try.

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Player influence on team goal difference (Premier League)

This blog was written on 26/4/2015, after Round 35 of the Premier League 2015/16.

You know that situation when you leave the pitch when your team is winning 2-1? At the end of the 90 minutes the opponents have turned everything around and won the match 2-3.  Stubborn as you are you tell your manager and teammates that you DID win the game, having left the field in a winning situation.

Taking those situations into account we can calculate the effectivity of each player in his team: how many goals does his team score when he is on the pitch compared to when is not present? And what impact does he have on the total goal difference?

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Mapas de goles esperados (Primera División Argentina 2016)

Mapas de goles esperados (explicación aquí) de los partidos de la fecha 7 en la Primera A 2016 (Argentina):

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Expected results Primera División Argentina (Fecha 13)

In this blog I give probabilities for games in the Argentine Primera División, show a predicted league table based on those probabilities and give a list of bets that corresponds to the given probabilities (note: you are free to use the ‘tips’, but I am not using them myself!).

I have replicated an existing prediction model and I am optimizing it for the Argentine league. The model is the so-called pi-ratings model by Constantinou and Fenton (2013). In this article they describe a system in which they assign probabilities to match outcomes (home win, draw or away win) based on historic results.

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Primera División Argentina: betting tips and results (Fecha 11)

Based on the prediction model described here, you can find betting tips and results in this blog:

(Note: you are free to use the ‘tips’, but I am not using them myself!).

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