Expected results Primera División Argentina (Fecha 13)

In this blog I give probabilities for games in the Argentine Primera División, show a predicted league table based on those probabilities and give a list of bets that corresponds to the given probabilities (note: you are free to use the ‘tips’, but I am not using them myself!).

I have replicated an existing prediction model and I am optimizing it for the Argentine league. The model is the so-called pi-ratings model by Constantinou and Fenton (2013). In this article they describe a system in which they assign probabilities to match outcomes (home win, draw or away win) based on historic results.

Continue reading

Primera División Argentina: betting tips and results (Fecha 11)

Based on the prediction model described here, you can find betting tips and results in this blog:

(Note: you are free to use the ‘tips’, but I am not using them myself!).

Continue reading

Primera División league analysis and predictions based on expected goals (Fecha 5)

Using this expected goals model and corresponding game maps I made a quick analysis of the games that have been played so far in the Argentine league. Expected goals are generally seen as a more reliable measure of a team’s quality than goals or shots. As there are relatively few few goals in a match there is a high variability in the conversion over a short period. Shots on the other do not tell us much either as a shot from 35 meters out is different than a tap-in.

Continue reading

Expected goals model Argentina

For the last couple of months I have been (slowly) working on an expected goals model for the Argentine league and I am very happy to finally present a first version here. I will explain the basics of the model here and I will also try to show some of the underlying numbers, something I haven’t seen so much in posts from others.

For the ones that want to skip this blog and just see the results: click here.

Continue reading

Prediction model Argentine Primera División (weekly updated)

I am constantly dealing with statistics from the Primera División of Argentina, and last week I was comparing shot averages, shot effectivity and save percentages. Doing this I started thinking about some of those statistics and how to apply them to predict the upcoming gameday. As fond player of the local Proode (you pay $2 pesos (€0,15) to predict 13 games, and in case you correctly predicted all the scores (home win, draw or away win) you share a $500,000 peso price with the other winners) I wanted to see what the value of the historical ratios was when forecasting the future games.

Continue reading