Argentina with and without Messi

I am not busting myths by saying that Argentina is not the same team with and without Lionel Messi. The Albiceleste are currently experiencing a rather difficult qualifying campaign for the 2018 World Cup and lot of the blame goes to the absence of La Pulga. Argentina won three out of three games when the man from Barcelona was playing (Bolivia, Chile and Uruguay) and only one of the seven in which he was not present (Colombia, 4 draws and 2 defeats). Argentina have only scored 11 goals and besides Messi (2), defender Gabriel Mercado (2) is the only player to have scored more than one goal.

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Premier League substitutions

I have been writing quite a lot on Premier League substitutions lately and here is an overview of the posts:

  1. Premier League substitutions: 1. What and When?
  2. Premier League substitutions: 2. The Decision Rule
  3. Premier League substitutions: 3. Do subs score more than starters?
  4. Premier League substitutions: 4. The double-substitution at half time
  5. Premier League substitutions: 5. Olivier Giroud (draft)
  6. Premier League substitutions: 6. Jürgen Klopp

ALL DATA COMES FROM DATAFACTORY

Premier League substitutions: 4. The double-substitution at half time

As argued in one of my previous blogs, building on the “Decision Rule” from Myers, Premier League managers could increase their chances of turning around a game if they would make earlier substitutions. As can be seen here managers on average implement their first, second and third substitutions in the minutes 62. 72 and 81 respectively.

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Premier League substitutions: 6. Jürgen Klopp

Liverpool and Man United played a close but rather dull game at Anfield Road last night (17/10/2016). The Red Devils held the Reds to only 9 shots, their lowest tally in a Premier League home game in the last 2 seasons (the current and last season that is), while they themselves also could not get more than 7 attempts.

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Premier League substitutions: 2. The Decision Rule

Data that is discussed in this blog was described here.

Replicating Myers’ study to substitutions

WHY am i digging this up?

Although there is seemingly very little a manager can do during a game and substitutions seem to be their main way to have an impact on the game, there is very little discussion about them. When getting the data on Premier League subs, as discussed beforeI remembered some statements from the book “The Numbers Game” where a study from Myers is mentioned. I wanted to see how much of his conclusions hold true over a larger time period in the Premier League (the dataset from Myers covers only one season).

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Premier League substitutions: 1. What and When?

Tactics have been transmitted to the players, set pieces have been prepared (or more likely not..) and opponents have been thoroughly studied. Then it’s game time and the manager sees his influence slip out of his hands. There seems to be only so much he can do during the 90 minutes. Walking impatiently along the sideline, shouting at the fourth official and handing notes to throw-in takers is probably not going to do it, but one of the obvious things he can do to try to impact an on-going game is to bring on substitute players. Little has been written on this matter, so here is my (first) try.

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Mapas de goles esperados (Primera División Argentina 2016)

Mapas de goles esperados (explicación aquí) de los partidos de la fecha 7 en la Primera A 2016 (Argentina):

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Expected results Primera División Argentina (Fecha 13)

In this blog I give probabilities for games in the Argentine Primera División, show a predicted league table based on those probabilities and give a list of bets that corresponds to the given probabilities (note: you are free to use the ‘tips’, but I am not using them myself!).

I have replicated an existing prediction model and I am optimizing it for the Argentine league. The model is the so-called pi-ratings model by Constantinou and Fenton (2013). In this article they describe a system in which they assign probabilities to match outcomes (home win, draw or away win) based on historic results.

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