Mapas de goles esperados (Primera División Argentina 2016)

Mapas de goles esperados (explicación aquí) de los partidos de la fecha 7 en la Primera A 2016 (Argentina):

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Primera División Argentina: betting tips and results (Fecha 11)

Based on the prediction model described here, you can find betting tips and results in this blog:

(Note: you are free to use the ‘tips’, but I am not using them myself!).

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Primera División league analysis and predictions based on expected goals (Fecha 5)

Using this expected goals model and corresponding game maps I made a quick analysis of the games that have been played so far in the Argentine league. Expected goals are generally seen as a more reliable measure of a team’s quality than goals or shots. As there are relatively few few goals in a match there is a high variability in the conversion over a short period. Shots on the other do not tell us much either as a shot from 35 meters out is different than a tap-in.

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Expected goals maps

In this previous post I described my expected goals model for the Primera División (Argentina). Here I will quickly show some first examples of the resulting game maps:

Rosario Central – Newell’s Old boys

This is an example of the xG map and corresponding information on the clásico of Rosario of last February 14th. As you can see on the pitch Rosario Central trashed their local rivales: they took a lot of shots, and the majority from very good locations.

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Expected goals model Argentina

For the last couple of months I have been (slowly) working on an expected goals model for the Argentine league and I am very happy to finally present a first version here. I will explain the basics of the model here and I will also try to show some of the underlying numbers, something I haven’t seen so much in posts from others.

For the ones that want to skip this blog and just see the results: click here.

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Shot conversion in the Argentine Primera División in the last 3 years.

In another blog I am keeping track of my work on a expected goals model. All variables and assumptions are largely based on other people’s models, but here I’ll discuss something I have not yet seen (or missed..): the underlying shot numbers. While working on the analysis for the bigger model I found a lot of interesting statistics on the shot conversion rate (goals/shots) per, for example, game state, number of shot in the game, time in game, and more. Where for the model I will dive deeper into the numbers and use statistical testing these are largely just descriptive tables. But no tests, no significance levels. And yes, each of the paragraphs would need a blog of its own..!

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Work-in-progress: Expected Goals model Argentine Primera División

I am currently developing an expected goals model for the Argentine top league and I am keeping track of my progress through this blog. It helps me oversee everything, remember flaws/problems I encounter and makes it open for input and critics from others.

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