Primera División league analysis and predictions based on expected goals (Fecha 5)

Using this expected goals model and corresponding game maps I made a quick analysis of the games that have been played so far in the Argentine league. Expected goals are generally seen as a more reliable measure of a team’s quality than goals or shots. As there are relatively few few goals in a match there is a high variability in the conversion over a short period. Shots on the other do not tell us much either as a shot from 35 meters out is different than a tap-in.

Here’s an example of a game map from Fecha 5:

River Plate - Independiente
River Plate – Independiente
Over- and underperforming teams

A table of differences between expected goals and actual goals in the tournament and the resulting goal differences. You can see the teams that have scored more goals than would have been expected from the shots they took (eg. Def. y Justicia, Colón and Vélez):

Expected goals per team and differences with real goals
Expected goals per team and differences with real goals (penalty shots and own goals not included)
Expected table

This is how the table would have looked given the probability of results from the game maps, which are calculated based on the shot values (expected goals).

The biggest “underperformers”, those who would have deserved more, are: Argentinos Juniors, Quilmes, Huracán and Olimpo.
The biggest “overperformers”, or the “lucky” ones: Lanús, Vélez and Atlético Tucumán.

 

Table based on probability of results as given in game maps
Table based on probability of results as given in game maps
Prediction model

Based on a prediction model I will explain in a later post, those are the given probabilities for the upcoming Fecha 6:

Probabilities Fecha 6
Probabilities Fecha 6
League prediction:

Using the same prediction model a league table is predicted for the end of the season after each game week.

Predicted league table

Corresponding Betting tips

The following tips are generated based on the probabilities above and use odds from betexplorer.com:

Betting tips
Betting tips
Results of THIS week

The model made a very small profit of 2,53 units on the main bets, the alternative bets lost a total of 1,43 units. This leaves a total profit of no more that 1,10, or 2%, over the placed bets.

Results
Results

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