Preview: Premier League Boxing Day football

It’s the most wonderful time of the year and the 10 Premier League games on Boxing Day make it even more beautiful! This is the schedule:

Premier League 2015/16 Boxing Day program

Manchester United

Manchester United have never lost a Premier League (since 1992/93) match against Stoke but they’re only 13/10 to beat them tomorrow. It’s their highest ever quote in a game against the Potters. Van Gaal’s side could maybe get some confidence from their Boxing Day record: since 1992 they have won 18 games, drawn 2 and lost only 1 on that day. After a defeat on 26/2/2002 they have won every single one of the last 11 Christmas games:

Premier League Boxing Day record

Man U are currently on a winless streak of 4 games in the League. If they’d happen to lose (or draw) against Stoke they would make that five. Something that has happened to the Mancunians only once in this millennium (2007).

Game state changes

I wrote about changing game states earlier. A game state refers to whether the home team is winning, the teams are drawing or the away team is winning. Looking at the Bournemouth – Crystal Palace match that should become a game state party. They’re the two teams with most game state changes per match of the Premier League: 1,94 and 1,82 times per game respectively. On the other hand we could predict a rather one-sided game between Stoke and Man Utd:

Game state changes

Netto player results: Vincent KompanY

Before the Arsenal vs City game there was a lot of fuzz about some stats (in general the same stat) of Kompany’s influence on Man City’s defensive performance:

Transforming this to a more “analytics”-justified per 90 minutes metric we see the following:

Vincent Kompany: netto results per player and the difference with his team's performance when he's not playing
Vincent Kompany: netto game result per player and the difference with the performance of his team when absent

When the Belgian is not on the pitch City concede 1,87 goal/90 minutes, when he does play they only concede 0,12. On the total goal difference/90 minutes Kompany has the a positive influence of +1,20 goals. Here’s the table of the top-20 players when ranked by team influence (increase in goal difference per 90 minute when on the pitch: some more explanation here):

The 20 players with the highest influence on their team's goal difference per 90 minutes
The 20 players with the highest influence on their team’s goal difference per 90 minutes. To get a significant measure only players to have played at least 200 minutes and have missed at least 200 minutes are taken into account.

Some other interesting stats:

Samir Nasri is the player (200+ minutes) with the best goal difference per 90 minutes when on the pitch: +1,68. Second and third come David Silva an Ulloa with +1,64.

Jose Ullua (Leicester) sees 2,56 team goals per 90 minutes when on the pitch, more than anyone else in this Premier League.

Michal Antonio (West Ham United) has spent 276 minutes on the pitch so far but has yet to see a Premier League goal this season (unless he’s watching MOTD): his team nor the opponent scored when he found himself playing.


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