Premier League substitutions

I have been writing quite a lot on Premier League substitutions lately and here is an overview of the posts:

  1. Premier League substitutions: 1. What and When?
  2. Premier League substitutions: 2. The Decision Rule
  3. Premier League substitutions: 3. Do subs score more than starters?
  4. Premier League substitutions: 4. The double-substitution at half time
  5. Premier League substitutions: 5. Olivier Giroud (draft)
  6. Premier League substitutions: 6. Jürgen Klopp

ALL DATA COMES FROM DATAFACTORY

Expected goals model Argentina

For the last couple of months I have been (slowly) working on an expected goals model for the Argentine league and I am very happy to finally present a first version here. I will explain the basics of the model here and I will also try to show some of the underlying numbers, something I haven’t seen so much in posts from others.

For the ones that want to skip this blog and just see the results: click here.

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Gold Cup 2017 Warm-up

The 2017 edition of the CONCACAF Gold Cup will start on the 7th of July. In Harrisson, French Guiana and Canada kick off for the 14th edition of the Gold Cup. Hosts USA start their campaign one day later and defending champions Mexico appear for the first time on July 9th. Here is your usual preview in numbers:

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World Cup for Clubs 2016

Tomorrow, 8 December 2016, starts the 2016 World Cup for Clubs with the qualification game between the champions of the host country Japan and the winner of the Oceania Champions League: Kashima Antlers vs Auckland City. It will be the 13rd time the tournament is played under this name (it still had a different format in the 2000 edition though), but if we would count all World Cups on club level (known as Intercontinental Cup before) that were disputed in history, it would be edition number 56. For the rest of this blog we will consider the latter.

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Argentina with and without Messi

I am not busting myths by saying that Argentina is not the same team with and without Lionel Messi. The Albiceleste are currently experiencing a rather difficult qualifying campaign for the 2018 World Cup and lot of the blame goes to the absence of La Pulga. Argentina won three out of three games when the man from Barcelona was playing (Bolivia, Chile and Uruguay) and only one of the seven in which he was not present (Colombia, 4 draws and 2 defeats). Argentina have only scored 11 goals and besides Messi (2), defender Gabriel Mercado (2) is the only player to have scored more than one goal.

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Premier League substitutions: 3. Do subs score more than starters?

Super-subs, the sub effect, pinch hitters and more. Players like Jermain Defoe (23 Premier League goals as a sub), Nwanko Kanu (17), Ole-Gunnar Solksjaer (17) and Javier Hernández (14) have done a lot of work to promote this terminology over the past decade(s). But how certain are those concepts? Are their players that consistently score more goals coming on as a sub? And what is the general tendency; do subs, fitter than starters when they come on, score more goals then starters? Let’s see.

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Premier League substitutions: 4. The double-substitution at half time

As argued in one of my previous blogs, building on the “Decision Rule” from Myers, Premier League managers could increase their chances of turning around a game if they would make earlier substitutions. As can be seen here managers on average implement their first, second and third substitutions in the minutes 62. 72 and 81 respectively.

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Premier League substitutions: 6. Jürgen Klopp

Liverpool and Man United played a close but rather dull game at Anfield Road last night (17/10/2016). The Red Devils held the Reds to only 9 shots, their lowest tally in a Premier League home game in the last 2 seasons (the current and last season that is), while they themselves also could not get more than 7 attempts.

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Premier League substitutions: 2. The Decision Rule

Data that is discussed in this blog was described here.

Replicating Myers’ study to substitutions

WHY am i digging this up?

Although there is seemingly very little a manager can do during a game and substitutions seem to be their main way to have an impact on the game, there is very little discussion about them. When getting the data on Premier League subs, as discussed beforeI remembered some statements from the book “The Numbers Game” where a study from Myers is mentioned. I wanted to see how much of his conclusions hold true over a larger time period in the Premier League (the dataset from Myers covers only one season).

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